Risk prediction method for power Internet of Things operation based on ensemble learning

Chao Hong; Xiaoyun Kuang; Yiwei Yang; Yixin Jiang; Yunan Zhang

doi:10.4108/ew.6045

Authors

Chao Hong CSG Electric Power Research Institute Co.
Xiaoyun Kuang CSG Electric Power Research Institute Co.
Yiwei Yang
Yixin Jiang CSG Electric Power Research Institute Co.
Yunan Zhang CSG Electric Power Research Institute Co.

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.4108/ew.6045

Keywords:

adaptive synthetic oversampling, ensemble learning, power internet of things, prediction, risk

Abstract

INTRODUCTION: The power Internet of Things is an important strategic support for the State Grid Corporation of China to build an international leading energy internet enterprise. However, the operating environment of the power Internet of Things is complex and varied, which has serious implications for the safe operation of the power Internet of Things.

OBJECTIVES: To timely predict the various risk.

METHODS: A data set is fused based on time series. The training set is over-sampled using an adaptive synthetic oversampling method. Then, by jointly considering the contribution of features to classification and the correlation between features, a risk prediction method ground on ensemble learning is established.

RESULTS: From the results, the accuracy of predicting 5 risk categories increased by 7.00%, 1.10%, 2.20%, 2.30%, and 0.60%, respectively, reducing the features from the original 118 columns to 60 columns and reducing the data dimension by 49.00%. Compared with traditional models, the accuracy was 98.61%, and the overall accuracy was improved by 0.60%.

CONCLUSION: This risk prediction scheme can quickly and accurately predict the risk categories that affect its operation. It has high prediction accuracy and fast speed than other algorithms. This research can provide strong assistance for security decision-making in the power Internet of Things.

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