Dynamics of prices and consumption of unhealthy foods as a monitoring tool of the strategy against obesity in Mexico

Abstract

INTRODUCTION: Mexico faces an epidemic of overweight and obesity, in 2018 75% of adults were overweight or obese. This condition as a risk factor generates a significant financial impact in the Health Sector. In response, the National Strategy for Prevention and Control of Overweight, Obesity, and Diabetes was implemented in 2013, which included as one of its pillars the implementation of fiscal policies. As part of fiscal policy, taxes were established on sugary drinks and foods with high-calorie content. Seven years after the implementation of the Strategy to control the epidemic of overweight and obesity, there have been some results. However, it is necessary to continue working and especially monitoring the performance of the different actions implemented.

OBJECTIVES: Propose an analytical intelligence model for monitoring the fiscal policies implemented to control overweight and obesity in Mexico.

METHODS: The proposed analytical intelligence model considers three methodological bases, a) price index of healthy and unhealthy foods through Principal Component Analysis, b) volatility measurement of both baskets through a GARCH model and c) monitoring of consumption patterns through household income and expenditure surveys.

RESULTS: The main results identified a price differential between the baskets of products healthy and unhealthy, especially at the beginning of the fiscal policy. Healthy products have higher price volatility than unhealthy products and according to consumption patterns, on average Mexican households spend 30% of their food expenditure on unhealthy products.

CONCLUSION: To strengthen fiscal actions to control overweight and obesity, it is recommended to have monitoring systems for the dynamic design and implementation of public policies. Although taxes have reduced in some grade the consumption of unhealthy products, it is necessary to promote the affordability of healthy products, helping to improve the diet of Mexican households.